Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1121 PM EST Sun Dec 02 2018

Valid Dec 03/0000 UTC thru Dec 06/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

Models show a high degree of similarity in their mass fields and
QPF over the next few days from a synoptic perspective.
Additionally, there is very limited QPF during the forecast period
over most of the CONUS. The deterministic models fit well within
the overall ensemble spread, and thus the approach for the WPC
forecast is a general model blend.

The greatest model spread seems to be with the trough quickly
passing through the Northeast around mid-week, but this is
expected to be mostly dry across the region, and thus the
(relatively minor) differences with the mass fields won't have a
tremendous impact on the QPF.

Some small detail differences (lake effect snow belts or
California terrain, for example) were taken into account, but this
was mostly based on the expected pattern, not due to a systematic
preference for one model.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers