Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
156 PM EST Mon Dec 03 2018

Valid Dec 03/1200 UTC thru Dec 07/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

19z update: The rest of the 12z guidance continues to show good
similarity and agreement at the synoptic scale. With just a few
minor QPF differences noted across southern California, a general
model blend across the CONUS is still preferred.

---previous discussion---
The latest forecast guidance shows good agreement with the major
synoptic perspective and the deterministic models fit well within
the overall ensemble spread. Thus the approach for the WPC
forecast is for a general model blend. For the most part, general
troughing over the CONUS will be found through the forecast period
while an upper level low approaches the southern California coast.

The greatest model spread seems to be with the trough quickly
passing through the Northeast around mid-week, but this is
expected to be mostly dry across the region, and thus the
(relatively minor) differences with the mass fields won't have a
tremendous impact on the QPF.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor