Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1128 PM EST Thu Dec 06 2018

Valid Dec 07/0000 UTC thru Dec 10/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

A storm system moving into southern California tonight will cross
the southern US over the next several days. As it interacts with
Gulf moisture across the Southern Plains, widespread precipitation
is expected to blossom Friday into Saturday. Heavy rain is a
threat across Texas and portions of Louisiana. A wave of low
pressure will develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico then lift
northeastward along the Southeast US coast where a mixture of
snow, ice, and rain is all possible.

Overall the latest model guidance shows relatively good agreement
with the synoptic features, especially through day 2 (Saturday).
The NAM and to some degree the GFS remain a bit faster with the
surface low tracking along the SE coast, but the spread is less
compared to 24 hours ago and most of the model solutions fall
within the consensus envelope.

QPF differences are noted across Texas and Louisiana Friday night
into Saturday and then again across North Carolina with the
deformation band as the surface low moves along the coast. The NAM
was the most bullish with amounts, but overall the spatial spread
is low.

Overall, the WPC preference this cycle is for a general model
blend with less weight toward the NAM by day 3 (Sunday).


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor