Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1137 PM EST Mon Jan 14 2019

Valid Jan 15/0000 UTC thru Jan 18/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

Model spread over the next few days is fairly limited, with the
deterministic models in very good agreement on the timing and
placement of major synoptic features. Just one example that
illustrates the limited spread: the normalized standard deviation
(500mb heights) for the ECMWF Ensemble indicates (values well
below 1) substantially less spread than forecasts from the past 30
days for most areas of the CONUS. This leads to a higher
confidence forecast overall.

Given the good agreement, the preference is to lean toward a
general model blend. There are some small timing differences in a
few cases, for instance with the precipitation over the Ohio
Valley into the Northeast from Wednesday Night into Friday.
However, in these cases, a compromise in timing was used --
generally in excellent agreement with the centroids of ensemble
QPF maxima.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers