Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1116 AM EST Tue Jan 15 2019

Valid Jan 15/1200 UTC thru Jan 19/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend excluding the NAM
Confidence: Above average

Model spread remain relatively low, with forecast confidence
during the short range at least slightly above average. A general
model blend was preferred, excluding the NAM which differed from
the overall consensus in a couple areas. The NAM was weaker than
consensus with the surface low tracking across the
Mississippi/Ohio Valleys on Thu, and was more suppressed than the
consensus with this same feature off the New England coast by Fri.
Farther west, the NAM becomes the slowest deterministic solution
with shortwave energy crossing the Great Basin/Rockies Thu
night/Fri, and a surface low developing late Fri over the southern
High Plains. There has been a slight trend toward a slower
solution with this feature evident in ensemble members, however
the NAM remains on the slow fringe of solutions here and something
closer to the reasonably well clustered GFS and 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET/CMC is the preference.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Ryan