Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1126 AM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

Valid Jan 28/1200 UTC thru Feb 01/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

Models showed relatively good consensus with respect to major
synoptic scale feature through the short range forecast period.
Solutions were very well clustered with the track of a surface low
from the Great Lakes into Ontario and Quebec tonight into Tue,
with minor timing differences around the trailing cold front
crossing the eastern U.S. A second low expected to develop along
the front across the Northeast on Tue also shows quite good
clustering among the various model/ensemble solutions. Farther
west, consensus has improved with respect to a compact Pacific
upper low forecast to approach California Wed night-Thu. As this
feature moves into the Southwest U.S. Thu night-Fri, the NAM is a
bit farther north than consensus with the low. In general, the
trend among the guidance has been slightly slower over time with
this feature, so the slower 00Z UKMET solution cannot be ruled
out. Finally, with another Pacific trough/frontal system
approaching the Northwest on Thu, models show a range of solutions
with respect to both timing and intensity, but with no clear
outliers. Given these considerations, a general model blend is the
preference across the CONUS during the short range forecast period.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Ryan