Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1101 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

Valid Jan 29/0000 UTC thru Feb 01/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
 Exception: 12z ECMWF/UKMET/00z GFS blend; West Coast Friday
Confidence: Above average


Models/Ensemble suite show excellent consensus through the bulk of
the short range forecast including: the large closed low and
associated cold blast/cold front and coastal surface development
through New England.   Further west a compact/strong closed low
will break through the dominating eastern Pacific ridge and while
there is a slight bit of spread, it is in a typical fashion with
the 00z NAM/GFS both outpacing the ECMWF/CMC; the only exception
was the UKMET breaking down and weakening a bit faster than normal
and slowing through the terrain of S CA into the desert Southwest.
 Overall a general model blend can be supported with very high
confidence.

The only real model spread/difference are with the approach of the
next Pacific trof toward the very end of Day 3.  Here the GFS had
been outpacing the remaining deterministic and ensemble spread,
but the 00z GFS trended much slower overall and while still a
slight bit faster than the UKMET/ECMWF and the ECENS mean...there
was a substantial slowing to have it considered.  The 00z NAM, on
the other hand, translated a bit faster and now outpaces the GFS
with a strong inflection/vort center about mid-wave (latitudinal).
The 12z CMC is also a bit too slow to the means but about equal to
the ECENS mean as the GFS is fast.  As such a ECMWF/UKMET/GFS
blend will suffice especially as the system remains in most part
off shore through the forecast period and run to run variation
over the next few days will likely resolve some of the internal
smaller scale variance.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Gallina