Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1113 AM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Valid Feb 18/1200 UTC thru Feb 22/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: 12Z GFS, 00Z ECMWF, 00Z UKMET
Confidence: Above average

Spread of model forecast heights aloft is rather limited over the
next few days, reflecting generally good model agreement and
similarity of the forecasts. The resulting QPF from the models and
ensemble members are also relatively similar, and this leads to
above average confidence. The greatest model variations were the
12Z NAM showing a stronger lead shortwave kicking into the Plains
on Tuesday Night, and the 00Z CMC showing a lower amplitude
pattern overall by Thursday (lower heights with the ridge in the
East, and higher heights with the trough in the West). The
differences associated with the Plains shortwave on the NAM do
lead to a stronger surface low that is positioned further
northwest, and a change in the placement of the QPF maxima.
Therefore, the NAM and CMC were not included in the model
preference at this time, with the preferred models being the
ECMWF, GFS and UKMET. Those three models provide a reasonably
consistent forecast and had similar QPF over the next 2-3 days.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers