Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1135 PM EST Mon Feb 18 2019

Valid Feb 19/0000 UTC thru Feb 22/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

Fairly persistent mid/upper level pattern expected through the
forecast period across the CONUS, generally featuring ridging
across the southeast US with deep troughing over the western US.
One stronger shortwave trough will move out into the central
Plains and Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. With that feature,
the new 00z guidance shows really good agreement and also lines up
well with the previous 12z guidance. A general model blend is
preferred here. The NAM is slightly more north with its QPF maxima
across the Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday but well
within the ensemble spread. Following that, another shortwave will
dig across the southwest US for late in the work week. The 00Z NAM
is a bit fast ejecting more energy out into the central Rockies
compared to the ECMWF/GFS/CMC/UKMET. Otherwise the difference are
relatively minor in the mid/upper levels.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor