Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 AM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

Valid Feb 19/1200 UTC thru Feb 23/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z NAM/GFS Model Evaluation...with Initial Preferences and
Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

Fairly persistent mid/upper level pattern expected through the
forecast period across the CONUS with persistent ridging across
the southeast US and two deep trough shifting through the western
and north-central US. The first deep trough will continue to shift
northwest from the Four Corners across the central Plains tonight
and Great Lakes Wednesday. The 12Z NAM remains the most amplified
with the trough axis, though it not far from the consensus with a
general model blend recommended.

The 12Z NAM is also slightly more amplified with the next trough
that closes into a low over southern CA/NV Thursday. However, the
12Z NAM and GFS have similar trough axis placement which is in
decent agreement from the rest of the 00Z consensus. Therefore a
general model blend is recommended.

Precipitation persist in the southeast with the open gulf under
the southeast ridge whose axis shifts east through Wednesday with
the next axis setting up over the lower MS Valley Thursday. Minor
differences in instability will continue to contribute to the axis
of heavy rain through the short term period. A general model blend
with a probability matched mean component to maintain the heavy
rain potential is recommended for precipitation.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Jackson