Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
201 PM EST Fri Mar 01 2019
Valid Mar 01/1200 UTC thru Mar 05/0000 UTC
...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...
12Z Model Evaluation Including Final Preference and Forecast
Confidence
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...Surface low offshore New England Saturday...
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Preference: 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET blend
Confidence: Slightly Above Average
...19Z update...
Regarding the surface low track, the 12Z ECMWF trended toward the
coast (close to the 12Z GFS), while the 12Z UKMET adjusted
slightly more offshore. While the 12Z GFS/ECMWF are more favored,
some incorporation of the 12Z UKMET as a blend works as well given
potential wobbles in future guidance potentially farther offshore
given a blend of the latest 12Z GEFS/ECMWF is slightly more
offshore than the 12Z GFS/ECMWF combo. The 12Z CMC is similar to
the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET blend, just a bit faster.
...previous discussion follows...
ECMWF members have been consistent with the low track over their
past 4 cycles, while the GEFS members have trended toward the
ECMWF clustering. The 12Z GFS and 00Z UKMET are in agreement with
one another's track and also agree with the latest ensemble
clustering, hence the preference. The 12Z NAM is a fast outlier
with the low track and the 00Z ECMWF is on the eastern side of the
ECMWF ensemble members.
Put simply, a non 12Z NAM blend works well for this system given
the non-12Z NAM differences are relatively minor.
...West Coast shortwave Saturday morning, tracking into the
eastern U.S. Sunday night with corresponding surface low from the
Lower Mississippi Valley to near the New England coast...
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Preference: 12Z ECMWF/UKMET through 00Z/04
12Z GFS/UKMET/CMC blend 00Z/04-00Z/05
Confidence: Average
...19Z update...
The 12Z UKMET/CMC trended similarly to the 12Z GFS with the depth
of the wave crossing the Plains and eastern U.S. while the 12Z
ECMWF trended slightly more amplified but with most changes
occurring after 00Z/04 at the surface. The 12Z ECMWF surface low
trended back north near New England while the 12Z UKMET continued
a southward trend. The 12Z CMC was in the middle of the
north/south guidance. Given these mixed changes, sticking to the
previous preference is preferred with that being a 12Z
GFS/UKMET/CMC blend.
...previous discussion follows...
Some minor timing differences appear with a shortwave nearing CA
early Saturday morning with the 00Z UKMET fastest and 00Z CMC
slowest. It turns out that these two models (UK/CMC) are also
flatter with the shortwave as it reaches the Lower Mississippi
Valley compared to the remaining model guidance. Ensemble scatter
low plots show the 12Z NAM as a faster outlier while the 12Z GFS
appears a bit fast as well through about 00Z/04 with the 00Z ECMWF
near favorable timing and latitude.
However, just beyond 00Z/04, a secondary surface low will develop
just off of the Mid-Atlantic coast and track offshore of New
England for early Sunday morning. The 12Z NAM continues its fast
outlier pace while the 00Z ECMWF tracks the low closer to the
coast compared to many of the remaining models. The ECMWF/CMC/GEFS
ensembles have all shown a southward shift with their 00Z/01 cycle
compared to their previous and consistent three 12/00Z cycles.
Currently, the favored track is to be in the middle of the
ECMWF/GEFS/CMC members but with more weight on the ECMWF/GEFS,
falling in between the 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF. This middle ground
has general support from the 00Z UKMET/CMC positions.
Confidence would be higher if not for the inconsistencies observed
from cycle to cycle in the deterministic and ensemble guidance.
...Deep mid-level vortex over Ontario...
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Preference: General Model Blend
Confidence: Average
...19Z update...
No significant changes were noted with the 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC
compared to their previous 00Z cycles.
...previous discussion follows...
Only minor timing/placement/magnitude differences show up with
this feature, with no strong support to go one way or the other.
Therefore given the relatively minor differences between the
guidance, a general model blend is preferred.
...Closed mid-level low nearing the coast of Washington on
Monday...
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Preference: General Model blend
Confidence: Average
...19Z update...
The previously northward displaced 00Z ECMWF adjusted south for
the 12Z cycle and gained support from the 12Z UKMET/CMC. However,
the differences between farther south (12Z NAM/GFS) and north (12Z
ECMWF/UKMET/CMC) are small enough such that a general model blend
is preferred.
...previous discussion follows...
The ensembles show the 00Z ECMWF toward the northern/slower side
of the spread with the 00Z ECMWF mean closer toward the non-00Z
ECMWF consensus. While non-ECMWF differences are present, they are
relatively minor for day 3 across the Pacific Northwest with a
general non-00z ECMWF blend preferred.
Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml
Otto