Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2019
Valid Mar 14/0000 UTC thru Mar 17/1200 UTC
...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...
00Z Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average
Models are in very good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern
and their mass fields over the next several days across the CONUS.
A broad area of high pressure will settle into the central and
eastern parts of the country this weekend, with a large ridge
amplifying along the West Coast. This will lead to very limited
QPF across the CONUS. Any minor model differences have only a
small impact on sensible weather and QPF, and thus the preference
is to lean toward a general model blend. A compromise was used for
any timing differences. There was slight variation as to the
progression of the cold front over the Southeast, but a median
timing was used for WPC QPF.
Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml
Lamers