Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1155 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019
Valid Mar 16/1200 UTC thru Mar 20/0000 UTC
...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...
12Z Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: 00z ECMWF/CMC/GFS blend
Confidence: Slightly Above Average
The synoptic pattern into early next week across the CONUS is
expected to remain fairly persistent with a highly amplified ridge
over the Intermountain West with downstream troughing over the
Upper Midwest and eastern US. With sprawling high pressure over
much of the central/eastern US, precipitation will be fairly
limited and confined to the Gulf Coast region and south Florida
with some lake effect snows over the Northeast US. Overall, light
QPF amounts are expected.
Through 60 hours (19.00z), model variations are minimal such that
a general model blend would suffice for mass fields across the
CONUS. This includes a quick moving shortwave trough embedded in
the cyclonic flow that moves across the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic region. The latest model guidance is in relatively
good agreement spatially and temporally, and with the rest of the
CONUS very quiet, the general model blend looks good.
A shortwave trough is then expected to dig down into the
northern/central Plains. Here, the ECMWF is a bit more amplified
and faster compared to the GFS/NAM solutions. The 00z CMC is also
similar to the ECMWF, but even faster. Will lean on previous
preferences and side with the faster/amplified solution, favoring
the ECMWF/CMC solution.
Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml
Taylor