Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019

Valid Mar 23/0000 UTC thru Mar 26/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation With Preferences/Confidence Intervals
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Any NAM/GFS initialization errors seen do not seem to degrade
their short range/84 hour forecasts.


Shortwave moving through the Great Basin/Midwest Sun-Tue
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Preference: GFS/CAN/NAM blend, slightly above ave confidence

The 00z ECMWF/00z UKMET bring this system across the West into the
Plains/Midwest as a stronger system than the other guidance.  As
it is transiting a building mid-level ridge, believe the weaker
00z runs of the GFS/Canadian/NAM consensus make more sense.  This
compromise is preferred with slightly above average confidence.


Deep layer cyclone lifting into the Midwest Sunday
Shortwave moving into the Southeast Monday night
Broad gyre drifting eastward towards the western US
Low pressure systems rotating offshore the West Mon/Tue
Deep layer cyclone lifting into southeast Canada
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The guidance shows reasonable agreement with these systems, so the
preference is for a blend of the 00z ECMWF, 00z UKMET, 00z GFS,
00z NAM, and 00z Canadian solutions with above average confidence.


Roth