Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1211 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019

Valid Mar 26/0000 UTC thru Mar 29/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation With Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend (less weight toward the 00z GFS)
Confidence: Slightly above average

The synoptic pattern across the CONUS features two significant
shortwaves in the forecast period, the first being one across the
central Plains that will then dive toward the Southeast US by
mid-week. The other feature is a large gyre off the western US
coast that will send a few pieces of energy into the Pacific
Northwest before eventually moving onshore by Thursday night into
Friday.

As far as mass fields go, there is very good agreement with the
initial 00z guidance now available compared to previous model
cycles with the first shortwave across the Plains through the
Southeast US. QPF fields are also fairly similar with just some
minor differences noted between the ECMWF and GFS with respect to
timing. A general model blend is sufficient for this feature.

The other area of model difference develops later in the forecast
period across the Rockies into the central Plains as the main
energy from the western US system moves east. Models indicate a
surface low will develop in the vicinity of TX/OK/KS later in the
week, but differ on their location and strength. As a result,
there are some notable QPF differences (placement), some models
have the axis of heavier QPF north across NE while others are
suppressed further (KS). The 00z GFS appears to be the most
outlier solution, whereas there is fairly good agreement in the
ECMWF/CMC and even to some degree the NAM. As a result, will
continue to suggest a general model blend, but perhaps some less
weight given to the GFS for this time frame and location.

Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor