Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Valid Apr 22/0000 UTC thru Apr 25/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend, lean to the ECMWF
Confidence: Above average

The model preference for the next few days is a general blend,
with a greater weight applied to the ECMWF. Models show generally
good agreement and similarity, particularly through 24.12Z
(Wednesday morning). Deterministic models are clustered fairly
close to ensembles, and ECMWF ensemble spread was near or below
the 30-day average over most of the CONUS. All this suggests
higher confidence and supports a multi-model blend.

With the QPF maximum in Texas from Day 2 into 3, the 00Z GFS was
notably further northwest than the other models. A comparison of
modeled instability shows the GFS extends the instability axis
further to the northwest than ECMWF. The position of the surface
low (south Texas) and associated surface trough support the
broader model consensus, which is represented fairly well by the
ECMWF. Therefore, more weight was given to the ECMWF.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers