Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1225 AM EDT Wed May 01 2019

Valid May 01/0000 UTC thru May 04/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
Preference: GFS/NAM/ECMWF blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

Through the next 3 days, the synoptic pattern across the CONUS is
expected to feature ridging across the southeast US with a large
closed upper level low over western Canada which will push
troughing through the interior western US. In general, the latest
models show a reasonable amount of agreement in the mass fields
with the biggest differences mainly found across the southern
stream energies due to convective issues and surface boundary
placement.

The 00z NAM is more amplified with energy pushing into the mid-MS
River Valley Thursday with the ECMWF showing the weakest (and
slowest) solution. The UKMET also shows a more amplified shortwave
across the Arklatex region on Thursday. QPF maxima differences are
more pronounced, with the NAM further north with its bulls-eye on
Thursday while the ECMWF is further south. The UKMET shows nearly
double amounts compared to the rest of the deterministic guidance.
For Friday, the CMC is the most different with widespread heavy
rainfall over the southeast US as it takes tropical moisture from
the Bahamas inland toward the Carolinas. With this in mind, the
preference is for a GFS/ECMWF/NAM blend, though for the most part
the mass fields show fairly good agreement.

Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor