Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1239 PM EDT Wed May 08 2019

Valid May 08/1200 UTC thru May 12/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: 12Z GFS, 00Z UKMET, 00Z ECMWF
Confidence: Slightly above average

Deterministic model mass fields are relatively similar over the
next few days, other than some minor differences. Much of the QPF
variability seems to be convectively driven, but in general
convection doesn't seem to be generating any large feedback issues
at this time. The 12Z NAM and 00Z CMC were not favored due to a
stronger shortwave (and associated vorticity fields aloft) lifting
into the Great Lakes from tonight into Thursday, leading to
snowfall differences. They were also two of the models that
strayed furthest from ensemble means with the retrograding low in
the Southwest. Overall, the ECMWF, GFS and UKMET were better
supported by the ensemble distribution. Even though those models
comprise the majority of the model preference today, it should be
noted that none of the deterministic models are a true outlier,
and all generally fell within the full scope of the NAEFS+ECMWF
ensemble distribution. Therefore, even though the NAM and CMC were
not incorporated into the preference, they can't be ruled out as
reasonable possibilities.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers