Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1248 PM EDT Thu May 09 2019

Valid May 09/1200 UTC thru May 13/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
            Lower weight on 12Z NAM and 00Z ECMWF
Confidence: Slightly above average

In general, deterministic models remain in reasonably good
agreement with their mass fields. Their height forecasts aloft are
contained within the full envelope of ensemble spread, which is
relatively low overall. The greatest QPF differences appear to be
primarily driven by convective processes. Therefore, a general
model blend is the overall preference.

For the area of heavier QPF in the Arklatex region, the 00Z ECMWF
is generally further north than the other models; given less
support for this idea from other models, the preference is to put
less weight on the ECMWF. The 00Z ECMWF also has a more amplified
trough over the Great Lakes by this weekend. ECMWF ensemble
members are more amplified as well, but the ensemble mean is less
amplified (like the majority of other models). The 12Z NAM also
showed some colder temperature profiles with that trough, with
less support from other models, so less weight is also placed on
the NAM.
 

Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers