Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
122 AM EDT Wed May 22 2019

Valid May 22/0000 UTC thru May 25/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z NAM/GFS/UKMET Evaluation...with Preliminary Preferences and
Confidence...
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...Overall CONUS Overview...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

The general theme over the next 3 days will be troughing out West
and ridging out East. A strong closed low, currently over the
central Plains will ride up over the ridge and reach the Northeast
Thursday night. Meanwhile, another large closed low will slowly
move through the Intermountain West, nearing the northern Plains
Friday morning before weakening on the northern side of the
eastern ridge toward the upper Mississippi Valley. A third closed
low will track southward into the Pacific Northwest by Saturday
morning.

All of these systems show good agreement with the latest suite of
guidance, including the latest 00Z UKMET across the West on
Friday, which slowed down its track and now lies close to the
deterministic/ensemble consensus. Ensemble spread is modest, so
minor changes may still occur on the synoptic scale, but they
should be limited in nature.

Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto