Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 AM EDT Sat May 25 2019

Valid May 25/0000 UTC thru May 28/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Forecast
Confidence...
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...Overall CONUS Overview...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

07z update: With the 00z ECMWF/UKMET now available, there
continues to be fairly good agreement in the large scale mass
fields through the next 3 days across the CONUS. A shortwave
trough ejecting out in the southwest flow on Monday across the
central Plains exhibits some spatial differences (ranging from SD
to northern KS) but all of the deterministic models do show
similar strength. A general blend of the available guidance is
still preferred at this time.

---previous discussion---
Fairly persistent pattern expected over the CONUS through the next
3 days with troughing over the western US and subtropical ridge
asserting itself over the southeast US. Several impulses will move
through the broad southwesterly flow in between across the central
US, setting up an active and wet pattern. Toward the end of the
period, an anomalous closed low over the western US will make an
eastward push into the central Rockies.

In the large scale sense, the latest suite of model guidance is
handling the pattern fairly well and show above normal agreement
with the mass fields. The deterministic runs lie within the
ensemble means and both are fairly clustered with each system
through 3 days, adding to the above average confidence. A general
model blend is preferred for the CONUS.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor