Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1228 AM EDT Sun Jun 02 2019

Valid Jun 02/0000 UTC thru Jun 05/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Blend of 12Z ECMWF and 00Z GFS
Confidence: Slightly above average

Models are generally in good agreement across most of the CONUS,
with the greatest remaining spread concerning how quickly the
trough over the Southwest ejects east, and the subsequent
interaction with the broad low currently developing in the Bay of
Campeche.

A blend of the GFS and ECMWF represents a forecast that is well
supported by the ensembles over the CONUS, including in the
vicinity of Texas and the southern Plains. The 12Z CMC and UKMET
eject the trough out of the Southwest much faster, leading to a
surface low nearly making it into South Texas by 05.12Z and an
accompanying large plume of heavy rainfall over most of the state
on Day 3. This has some support from CMC ensemble members, but
very limited support from GEFS+ECMWF ensemble members. Therefore,
the preference is to place less weight on the CMC and UKMET
overall.

Although the 00Z NAM is fairly close to the GFS and ECMWF in its
mass field forecasts, there are substantial differences in the
southern and central Plains, with the NAM showing almost no
precipitation over the northern half of Texas, into Oklahoma and
Kansas. While there may be a QPF minimum in this general area
between regional maxima, the NAM seems to emphasize this too much
relative to other models and the 01.00Z GEFS reforecast.

Therefore, the a blend of the GFS and ECMWF is currently favored.
The ECMWF received slightly more weight in the vicinity of Texas,
as the GFS may be slightly too dry with deep southerly flow and PW
values likely to increase past 2 inches.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers