Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1227 PM EDT Wed Jun 05 2019

Valid Jun 05/1200 UTC thru Jun 09/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation with Confidence and Preference
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Blend of the 12z GFS, 00z ECMWF, 00z UKMET
Confidence: Slightly above average

The model preference remains the same from the previous model
cycles - mainly a blend of the latest GFS/ECMWF with some
inclusion of the UKMET and CMC possible. The NAM, while acceptable
in the first 24-36 hours, seems to deviate more with its mass
fields and QPF distribution after that. Overall, the deterministic
runs of the models fall well within the ensemble spread.

The mid/upper level low over New Mexico will slowly advance east
toward the lower MS Valley Friday and then stall through this
upcoming weekend. The NAM is too far north with its axis and
differs from the rest of the deterministic guidance. This results
in its QPF also displaced further north. O

Outside of that system, weak ridging will develop downstream
across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast US for this weekend, ahead
of that upper low in the south, but also with another trough
swinging through the Northwest and Northern Rockies. There are
some longitudinal differences with its passage, especially by Day
3, but in general, the models seem to exhibit good agreement


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor