Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 AM EDT Thu Jun 06 2019

Valid Jun 06/0000 UTC thru Jun 09/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Confidence and Preference
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Blend of the 00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF
Confidence: Average

The models continue to support the idea of a rather amplified and
blocky pattern evolving across the CONUS over the next 2 to 3
days. This will be characterized by a rather deep northern stream
trough crossing the Pacific Northwest Thursday and Friday before
then lifting northeast toward central Canada this weekend.
Meanwhile, the southern stream trough/closed low over the southern
High Plains will advance slowly east and is expected to interact
with the compact low/mid level low center over southeast TX and
gradual consolidate/phase over portions of the lower MS and TN
Valley region this weekend. This will facilitate a degree of
downstream height rises/ridging over the far western Atlantic and
also over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Model spread with the northern stream energy is relatively modest,
but the 00Z GFS/NAM solutions gradually become a bit more
progressive with the height falls and an associated cold front
that will impact the northern Plains region by Saturday. All of
the non-NCEP guidance is clustered on the slower side of the model
suite, and the latest ensemble guidance is split with the
ECENS/CMCE guidance slower and the GEFS more progressive. In a
relative sense, an average or consensus of the GFS, UKMET and
ECMWF would tend to best approximate the model consensus with this
energy.

Regarding the energy and low center impacting the Gulf Coast
states and adjacent areas of the lower MS/TN Valleys, the 00Z
GFS/NAM solutions tend to dig their height falls a tad farther
south over the Gulf Coast states and by the end of the period
focus surface low pressure south of the entire non-NCEP model
suite. The latest GEFS mean does support the more southerly
consensus, with the ECENS guidance farther north in favor of the
UKMET, CMC and ECMWF solutions. The non-NCEP guidance did tend to
collectively trend a little farther south with some support for
the GFS/NAM camp although the NAM overall appears to bit too far
south. As a means of compromising, a blend of the GFS, UKMET and
ECMWF will be preferred.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison