Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
105 PM EDT Sun Jun 09 2019

Valid Jun 09/1200 UTC thru Jun 13/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Confidence and Preferences
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Blend of the 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF
Confidence: Average

Mid-upper level ridging just off of the West Coast will persist
through mid-week while two pronounced shortwaves track through a
longwave trough situated over the north-central U.S. Model
agreement across the CONUS is fair for most systems but
differences are greatest with a shortwave which begins to amplify
across the northern Plains on Tuesday into the upper Great Lakes
through Thursday morning. The ensembles show the 00Z CMC toward
the deeper side of the latest ensemble spread while the 00Z UKMET
is toward the weaker side concerning the 500 mb trough. The
amplitude of the upper trough affects the low position with the
00Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS representing closest to the middle of the
best ensemble clustering. The 12Z NAM was not far off with its 500
mb pattern with the trough on Wednesday, but its surface low was
north of the agreeable ensemble means. Despite potential for
adjustments, for now prefer to stay toward the better clustering
of the ensemble guidance or near the 00Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS.

Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto