Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 243 PM EDT Sun Jun 09 2019 Valid Jun 09/1200 UTC thru Jun 13/0000 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 12Z Model Evaluation...with Final Confidence and Preferences ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Blend of the 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET Confidence: Average ...19Z update... While the 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC adjusted toward the consensus regarding the shortwave amplifying across the Midwest Wednesday, The 12Z UKMET shifted the greatest toward the ensemble means. Given this shift in the UKMET, it is now included in the preference, but the 12Z CMC did not shift far enough and continues to appear a bit too far south through Wednesday. ...previous discussion follows... Mid-upper level ridging just off of the West Coast will persist through mid-week while two pronounced shortwaves track through a longwave trough situated over the north-central U.S. Model agreement across the CONUS is fair for most systems but differences are greatest with a shortwave which begins to amplify across the northern Plains on Tuesday into the upper Great Lakes through Thursday morning. The ensembles show the 00Z CMC toward the deeper side of the latest ensemble spread while the 00Z UKMET is toward the weaker side concerning the 500 mb trough. The amplitude of the upper trough affects the low position with the 00Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS representing closest to the middle of the best ensemble clustering. The 12Z NAM was not far off with its 500 mb pattern with the trough on Wednesday, but its surface low was north of the agreeable ensemble means. Despite potential for adjustments, for now prefer to stay toward the better clustering of the ensemble guidance or near the 00Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS. Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Otto