Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Valid Jun 15/0000 UTC thru Jun 18/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Preliminary Model Evaluation...with Confidence and Preferences
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...Overall Analysis Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Non-UKMET Blend
Confidence: Slightly Above Average


There is overall minimal spread in the guidance depiction of the
synoptic pattern into early next week. A closed low near St. James
Bay, Canada will spin nearly in place, leaving broad cyclonic flow
across most of the CONUS. Within this flow, weak impulses will
shed eastward across the Southern tier before a more significant
shortwave digs into the Northern Plains from British Columbia
D2-D3. While the NAM continues to intensify each shortwave moving
across the CONUS, the timing and depth of these features is within
the ensemble envelope so the NAM can be used, but with some
caution on the blend weight. The CMC is extremely robust with
pushing rainfall into The Arklatex D2-D3, most likely due to
faster and subtly further south shortwave energy ahead of the main
front/trough diving in from the north. This is very much an
outlier and should not be used across the Arklatex, but is in
reasonable agreement elsewhere across the CONUS. This leaves the
only significant discrepancy among the global suite to be the
UKMET which remains flat with the troughing through the Northern
Plains in response to higher heights and more ridging aloft. This
suggests persistence from the afternoon preferences, and leaves
out the UKMET from the 00Z preliminary blend.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Weiss