Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1255 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Valid Jun 16/0000 UTC thru Jun 19/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Preliminary Model Evaluation...with Confidence and Preferences
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...Overall Analysis Across the CONUS...
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Preference: 00Z GFS, 00Z NAM, 12Z ECMWF
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

The challenges in the synoptic evolution the next three days
involve primarily mesoscale impulses moving through the broad
cyclonic flow across the CONUS. While these are hard to
distinguish even on shorter time scales, there are at least some
differences that can be gleaned from the current model suite.

The 00Z.16 GFS/NAM are in very good agreement with both
positioning and intensity of shortwaves and the deepening trough
into the Northern Plains the latter half of the period. This
matches well with the 12Z ECMWF, which may be a bit faster with
shortwave energy than the other two, but is well within the
ensemble envelope so can be included in the preferred blend. The
CMC is the one global model that stands out considerably with
shortwaves moving through the CONUS, as it is nearly always too
fast, in some places by more than 5 degrees of longitude, than any
other available model. This is despite an overall similar synoptic
pattern, which causes concern about its feasibility. The UKMET
also continues to be too strong with ridging across the eastern
portion of the CONUS, leading to weaker shortwaves and higher
overall heights, and will continue to be excluded from the blend.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Weiss