Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1235 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Valid Jun 16/1200 UTC thru Jun 20/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Prelim Model Evaluation...with Confidence and Preferences
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...Overall Analysis Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend with less weight on CMC/UKMET
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

The deterministic models including the 12Z NAM and GFS, and 00Z
ECMWF, CMC and UKMET, are in reasonably good agreement. From a
height pattern perspective aloft, the forecast isoheights from
these models are generally well within the envelope of ensemble
spread. Therefore, a general model blend is preferred to account
for a fuller range of possibilities and the inherent QPF
variability expected with a more convective rainfall pattern.

Less weight is placed on the CMC and UKMET. After 19.00Z (Tuesday
evening), they begin to trend toward higher heights over much of
the western and central U.S. with some stronger ridging in some
places. The trend toward higher heights also coincides with an
acceleration of some of the shortwaves embedded in the flow over
the central and eastern U.S., and thus may have implications for
timing of rainfall. Nevertheless, there are some ensemble members
(primarily GEFS or CMC) that do show similar height patterns or
even stronger ridging in some cases. Therefore, these two models
should still be reasonable possibilities.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers