Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1223 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Valid Jun 19/1200 UTC thru Jun 23/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Confidence and Preferences
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend with more inclusion to ECMWF/GFS
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

General troughing over the CONUS, with one shortwave over the
eastern US with a stronger shortwave over the Pacific Northwest,
will eventually transition to a more amplified pattern featuring
troughing over the western US and ridging over the eastern 2/3 of
the CONUS. For the shortwave moving through the Ohio Valley
Thursday and Northeast on Friday, the NAM is on the stronger side
of the model envelope while the GFS is slightly faster, especially
at the surface with its passage of the low into PA/NY. Across the
western US, longwave troughing will be developing toward the end
of Day 3, where the GFS is deeper and faster compared to its
ensemble mean. Conversely, the ECMWF is weaker and slower than its
ensemble mean, but overall the various models exhibit fairly good
consistency for Day 2/3 and are within typical spread. Overall, a
general model blend with more inclusion to the GFS/ECMWF and their
ensemble means is favored for this cycle.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor