Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 236 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Valid Jun 21/0000 UTC thru Jun 24/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z Model Evaluation...with Final Confidence and Preferences ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: 00Z GFS, 00Z ECMWF, 00Z UKMET Blend Confidence: Average After the departure of an upper trough from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today and Saturday, from which the models show good agreement, attention shifts to the central and western U.S. with a slow moving closed low. The mid-level center will track from Montana this morning to the central Saskatchewan/Manitoba border by Monday morning as a shortwave to its south ejects into the central Plains for Sunday. Elsewhere across the CONUS, model agreement is relatively good, enough to support a general model blend. The mid-level shortwave reaching the Great Plains Sunday night is where the greatest model differences reside. Timing differences by 00Z/24 show with the 00Z CMC fastest, followed by the 00Z NAM, then the 00Z UKMET, 00Z ECMWF and 00Z GFS. Run to run consistency in the UKMET and CMC have been poor but agreement from the 00Z UKMET with the latest ensemble clustering is close enough to include it as part of a blend, albeit a bit faster than the consensus (while the previous UKMET was slower). The ECMWF mean has been relatively consistent with the timing but has sped up a little since yesterday's cycles. Currently, a blend of the 00Z GFS, 00Z ECMWF and 00Z UKMET matches best with the middle of the ensemble spread, including a faster nudge than continuity. Given some of the flip flopping, there remains potential to slow back down with future cycles, especially given the blocking ridge downstream. Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Otto