Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019

Valid Jun 21/1200 UTC thru Jun 25/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Confidence and Preferences
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Non-CMC blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

Troughing over the Northeast US will lift further northeast into
Canada later today and will be replaced by ridging that extends
from the Gulf Coast through the Great Lakes. The closed upper
level low over Montana is expected to pull northward into southern
Canada while a fairly potent shortwave trough rounds its base into
the central Plains by later in the weekend. Finally, by the end of
Day 3, another closed low will be approaching the Pacific
Northwest.

In general, the model guidance is in relatively good shape and
agreement through the forecast period. The main exception noted
was across the central Plains with the shortwave trough on day
2/3. The CMC is much stronger/amplified than any of the other
guidance, and tries to close off over NE/IA late Sunday night
while the rest of the guidance is a bit weaker but still
negatively titled. Outside of this, there is good agreement. As
such, a non-CMC blend is preferred for the mass fields across the
CONUS at this time.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor