Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1235 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Valid Jun 22/1200 UTC thru Jun 26/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Confidence and Preferences
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Non-00Z UKMET blend
Confidence: Average

Model agreement has improved over the last 24 hours with the
overall pattern across the CONUS through the next 3 days.
Shortwave troughing over the interior West will eject out into the
central Plains through Sunday and then lift into the Upper Midwest
and become negatively titled on Monday. The only model that is out
of sync with the rest of the guidance continues to be the 00z
UKMET run, which is weaker and a bit further to the south/east
compared to the consensus. As that feature then lifts north of the
Great Lakes by the end of the forecast period, mostly zonal flow
will set up across the CONUS with some weaker/embedded shortwaves
in the southern stream across Texas and Southeast US. A large
closed low approaching Pacific Northwest is well agreed upon the
available deterministic guidance and shows good consistency with
the 00z and 06z ensemble runs.

Elsewhere, large scale mass fields are in good shape across the
CONUS although mesoscale convective issues do plague the
southern/central US with respect to outflow boundaries and QPF
differences. But overall, a non-UKMET blend should suffice for the
large scale pattern.

Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor