Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1239 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Valid Jun 24/1200 UTC thru Jun 28/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Prelim Confidence and Preferences
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

Models are in excellent agreement showing a trough lifting
northeast from the Plains into eastern Canada by tomorrow
afternoon. After that, there is very good agreement with
amplification of a trough along the West Coast and a ridge over
much of the CONUS to the east of the Rockies. Isoheights at a
variety of pressure levels are well clustered, and the
deterministic models are generally contained within the envelope
of ensemble spread. The 00Z UKMET has the West Coast trough
centered on the western edge of available models, but is otherwise
similar to other models on the overall pattern.

Nevertheless, there is inherent uncertainty with the QPF related
to convective processes. This is evident in some run-to-run
changes of the location of precipitation maxima, likely due to a
slightly different evolution of convection in the same overall
synoptic environment. This will become even more challenging as
the ridge builds by mid-week and mid-upper level flow across the
central and eastern U.S. weakens.

Given the broad agreement on the synoptic pattern and major waves,
the preference is for a general model blend. This will help
account for some of the convective uncertainty. Forecast
confidence is listed as slightly above average, but is essentially
above average on the synoptic pattern and average for the
mid-summer on mesoscale details and precise placement of QPF
maxima.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers