Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1205 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

Valid Jun 28/0000 UTC thru Jul 01/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Prelim Confidence and Preferences
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

Model mass fields are in good agreement overall, and their QPF is
relatively similar other than some minor positional differences.
For the height patterns aloft, the deterministic models are all
well within the full envelope of ensemble spread, and the
isoheights at a variety of pressure levels are tightly clustered.
Therefore, the preference is for a general model blend, and this
will help account for some of the inherent convective
uncertainties.

For this weekend, over most of the CONUS, ECMWF ensemble spread of
500mb heights is lower than the previous 30-day average. This also
indicates increased model agreement and higher forecast confidence
overall.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers