Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019

Valid Jun 28/1200 UTC thru Jul 02/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Confidence and Preferences
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

Model mass fields are in good agreement overall, and their QPF
remains relatively similar other than some modest positional and
intensity differences. The guidance agrees in maintaining a
negative height anomaly through the period across the Pacific
Northwest, and also downstream across the Northeast U.S.
Meanwhile, a positive height anomaly associated with a rather
strong subtropical ridge is expected to generally remain intact
across an area from the Four Corners region east across especially
the central Plains and Midwest. A broad weakness in the southern
stream flow will be advancing west across the Gulf Coast states
and toward the southern Plains through the period as it traverses
the south side of the aforementioned subtropical ridge.

The deterministic models remain well within the full envelope of
ensemble spread, and are reasonably well clustered with each other
across the CONUS going through the weekend and into early next
week. Therefore, the preference is for a general model blend, and
this will help account for some of the inherent convective
uncertainties/MCV impulses.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison