Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1252 PM EDT Mon Jul 01 2019

Valid Jul 01/1200 UTC thru Jul 05/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z NAM/GFS Evaluation...with Preliminary Confidence and
Preferences
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend, led by the 00Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS
Confidence: Slightly below average

The synoptic scale pattern over the lower 48 through Thursday will
be relatively stagnant with mid-upper level troughing over the
Northwest, with ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico. At the
surface, a relatively strong cold front will move into the Dakotas
on Tuesday with stalling for Wednesday and Thursday. South of this
boundary, weak mid-level impulses will track northeastward from a
weak and nearly stationary mid-upper level low/trough axis
situated over the central to southern Plains.

The 00Z UKMET/CMC show a greater degree of mid-level ridging over
the eastern 2/3 of the nation through the middle of the week than
other available guidance. The 12Z NAM remains faster with its
progression of mid-level shortwaves across the Midwest into the
Great Lakes region Wednesday and Thursday with better support for
a non-NAM blend across this area of the nation. Ensemble
clustering is best suited to a general model blend as a whole, led
by a blend of the 00Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS. The usual detail
differences given summertime convection will remain which keeps
confidence a bit lower than average.

Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto