Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1230 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2019

Valid Jul 03/0000 UTC thru Jul 06/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Prelim Confidence and Preferences
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Blend of 00Z GFS, 00Z NAM, 12Z ECMWF
Confidence: Slightly above average

Model spread has narrowed somewhat in the past few cycles for the
latter half of the week. The deterministic models are generally
well supported by ensembles and tightly clustered. Therefore,
confidence is slightly above average despite some inherent
uncertainty associated with the convective nature of much of the
rainfall across the CONUS. The models are in good agreement on the
overall synoptic pattern.

The 12Z CMC and 12Z UKMET, however, take strong
convectively-induced vorticity maxima and push them across the
Upper Midwest, yielding very heavy and focused QPF swaths. While
an MCV initiating on the High Plains and propagating east cannot
be ruled out, the CMC and UKMET imply a bit too much confidence in
the intensity and placement of the rainfall. Furthermore, these
two models also show slightly higher heights aloft across much of
the Plains and Midwest, which seems to displace the greatest
concentration of heavy rain further north. For these reasons, the
UKMET and CMC were excluded from the preference. A blend of the
GFS, NAM and ECMWF should yield a fairly strong consensus that is
close to the ensemble means.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers