Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2019

Valid Jul 04/0000 UTC thru Jul 07/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Confidence and Preferences
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

08z update: No significant changes noted with the rest of the 00z
guidance now available. The preference for a general model blend
for the CONUS mass fields still applies.

---previous discussion---
The large scale pattern across the CONUS through the next 3 days
is expected to feature troughing over the western US with a
diminishing ridge over the southeast US. Progressive shortwaves
from the central Rockies through the Upper Midwest and western
Great Lakes will be the primary driver for organized convection,
but subtle kinks in the ridge from Texas to the mid-Atlantic will
allow typical summertime pulse to loosely organized convection to
develop. By the end of the period, the ridge over the southeast US
is likely to break down somewhat such that a bit more troughing
will develop over the Great Lakes and Eastern US.

The latest model suite is in relatively good agreement with this
pattern and there has been fairly good run to run consistency in
the pattern. The UKMET continues to be a bit warmer and stronger
across the northern Rockies and northern Plains while the GFS is
bit further south/suppressed and cooler. But overall, these
differences are minor and well within the ensemble spread.
Otherwise, a general model blend is preferred across the CONUS for
the mass fields as any differences are related to small scale
impulses which struggle to be resolved on synoptic temporal and
spatial scales.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor