Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1232 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2019

Valid Jul 04/1200 UTC thru Jul 08/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Confidence and Preferences
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend; lesser weight toward the 00Z UKMET
Confidence: Slightly above average

Troughing across the western CONUS will continue through Day 3
thanks to ongoing ridging along the Gulf of Alaska. Meanwhile, the
ridge across the east coast will start to erode as mid-level
vorticity ejecting from the western trough starts to undercut
height rises.  Given this, expect organized convection to be
primarily focus across the Plains into the mid/upper MS Valley.
However, by Day 3, the mid/upper levels in the northeast will
become more zonal as the ridge begins to diminish allowing
mid-level energy to interact with a surface cold front.  

Models are in fairly good agreement from a mass field perspective.
However, the 00Z UKMET is once again showing signs of height,
temperature and mid-level vorticity discrepancies compared to
model consensus.  It appears the UKMET is too amplified with its
mid-level ridging across the Plains and low level trough axis
toward the end of the period. In addition, the 500mb heights are
questionable in the east given the weaker mid-level vorticity
ejecting from the western trough. These variations are reflected
by the more significant QPF differences. Therefore, lesser weight
was given toward the UKMET overall.   

Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

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