Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EDT Fri Jul 05 2019

Valid Jul 05/0000 UTC thru Jul 08/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Confidence and Preferences
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

07 update: With the rest of the 00Z guidance now available, the
overall agreement between the models remains very similar. The
UKMET continues to be on the more amplified side of the model
spread by Day 3, but its difference is relatively minor and within
the typical model spread by Day 3. As such, no changes were needed
to the model blend preference.

---previous discussion---
Relatively persistent pattern expected to hold across the CONUS
through the next 3 days. An upper level ridge will remain anchored
 through the Gulf of Alaska with downstream troughing and a closed
low over the Pacific Northwest. Strong ridging will also remain in
place over the southern US / Gulf of Mexico. Typical summertime
weather can be expected with the most organized weather systems
remaining from the central/northern Rockies through the northern
tier of the US.

The initial 00Z guidance and previous 12Z cycle shows above
average agreement in the large scale sense with the mass fields
and as such a general model blend can be applied for the CONUS.
The only exception would be a lesser weight toward the 12Z UKMET
in the latter half of the forecast period, as its a bit more
amplified with ridging through the northern Plains as well as
attempts to break down the closed low over the Pacific Northwest
faster than the consensus.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor