Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1225 AM EDT Sat Jul 06 2019

Valid Jul 06/0000 UTC thru Jul 09/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Confidence and Preferences
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend Day 1/2; GFS/ECMWF (and ensemble
means) blend Day 3
Confidence: Slightly Above average

For the general synoptic pattern across the CONUS, the main
features remain a closed upper low over the Pacific Northwest with
large ridging anchored over the central Gulf. A couple shortwaves
will track through the quasi-zonal flow across the northern tier
through day 2. By Day 3, slight troughing is expected to develop
over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. with ridging through the
Upper Midwest. More troughing will slowly work east from Pacific
Northwest into the Northern Plains.

Overall, the latest model guidance handles the main features
similarly and are within reasonable spread through Day 3. The
UKMET remains too warm with its heights/thicknesses, especially
Day 2/3 across the Northern US. Other model differences are noted
with respect to the Pac NW and the shortwave energy that breaks
down and out into the Rockies on Day 3 /Monday/. The GFS and NAM
are faster than the rest of the guidance, while the ECMWF/ECENS
(and also the GEFS mean) are slower with its progression. With
this in mind, the WPC preference is for a general model blend for
Day 1/2, followed by a blend of the GFS/ECMWF (and their ensemble
means).


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor