Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1238 PM EDT Sun Jul 07 2019

Valid Jul 07/1200 UTC thru Jul 11/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation Including Preference and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
 Exception: 12z GFS & 00z ECMWF/CMC across Northern Tier
Confidence: Slightly above average

The large scale pattern in the CONUS remains fairly agreed upon
with a broad deep trof across the West Coast with fairly flat
zonal flow through the northern tier.  The trof will slowly shift
east later today with continued southwesterly flow expected
favorable upscale growth to convective pattern across the Northern
High Plains Monday into Tuesday, culminating in the trof
potentially becoming closed across N DAK by 00z Wed.  The 12z NAM
continues to be over-amplified and while the 12z GFS trended back
a bit deeper, it is more sensible in the strength and in line with
the ensembles as well as the ECMWF/CMC.  The 00z UKMET is a bit
more amplified and faster and while could be included in the
blend, think a stronger one would eliminate it or at much reduced
weighting compared to the GFS/ECMWF/CMC.  

Elsewhere, the broad closed low entering the Pacific NW by Wed is
in strong agreement as well as the trailing edge of the East Coast
trof that begins to retrograde across the Carolinas into the NE
Gulf by early Wed.   The 12z NAM is a bit further north, along the
FL Panhandle compared to the ECMWF/UKMET/CMC but the GFS is also a
bit north as well, but the QPF/general pattern is solid enough for
a general model blend for these areas.

Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Gallina