Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 232 PM EDT Sun Jul 07 2019 Valid Jul 07/1200 UTC thru Jul 11/0000 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 12Z Model Evaluation Including Preference and Forecast Confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model blend Exception: Non-NAM across Northern Tier Confidence: Slightly above average 19z update: The 12z ECMWF trended toward the GFS but as typical is much weaker with the wave over NDAK indicating more of a sfc trof toward the west than a sub-1000mb surface low. The UKMET/CMC are further east near the Red River per prior runs, but the UKMET trended a bit flatter and slower to match the ECMWF/CMC. As such will favor a non-NAM blend further for this area especially from 09.00z through 10.12z, as the synoptic forcing begins to dominate over the mesoscale forcing in the model. Elsewhere, the Pacific NW continues to be well agreed upon for a general model blend. As for the Southeast, the 12z ECMWF trended a bit faster rotating around the ridge and further southwest into the Gulf by 84hrs compared to the 00z run; it remains well south of the NAM but accompanied by the CMC/UKMET with the GFS still splitting the difference between the NAM/ECMWF. WPC/NHC preferences are more toward the southern solutions and away from the NAM, but overall the spread is small to support a general model blend with lower weight to the NAM. ---Prior Discussion--- The large scale pattern in the CONUS remains fairly agreed upon with a broad deep trof across the West Coast with fairly flat zonal flow through the northern tier. The trof will slowly shift east later today with continued southwesterly flow expected favorable upscale growth to convective pattern across the Northern High Plains Monday into Tuesday, culminating in the trof potentially becoming closed across N DAK by 00z Wed. The 12z NAM continues to be over-amplified and while the 12z GFS trended back a bit deeper, it is more sensible in the strength and in line with the ensembles as well as the ECMWF/CMC. The 00z UKMET is a bit more amplified and faster and while could be included in the blend, think a stronger one would eliminate it or at much reduced weighting compared to the GFS/ECMWF/CMC. Elsewhere, the broad closed low entering the Pacific NW by Wed is in strong agreement as well as the trailing edge of the East Coast trof that begins to retrograde across the Carolinas into the NE Gulf by early Wed. The 12z NAM is a bit further north, along the FL Panhandle compared to the ECMWF/UKMET/CMC but the GFS is also a bit north as well, but the QPF/general pattern is solid enough for a general model blend for these areas. Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Gallina