Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1224 PM EDT Mon Jul 08 2019

Valid Jul 08/1200 UTC thru Jul 12/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation Including Preference and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Non-NAM Blend; UKMET excluded on Day 3
Confidence: Slightly above average

Models show a high degree of similarity on the synoptic pattern.
Model spread is relatively limited even among all the NAEFS and
ECMWF ensemble members through mid-week. Over most of the CONUS,
the ECMWF ensemble spread for mid-upper level heights is below the
previous 30-day average. Therefore, a general model blend seems
appropriate in most cases over the next few days.

There are two exceptions where model spread is higher; first with
the low projected to form near the Gulf Coast. The NAM is excluded
from the preference as it develops the surface low well inland,
and continues the low track over land through Thursday Night. All
of the other models are better clustered with a track over the
water after about 10.12Z. There is some additional spread on the
low track from the other models, but a blend of the timing and
location is preferred from those models (CMC, GFS, UKMET, ECMWF).

The second case with higher model spread is a trough progressing
through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes around mid-week. The 00Z
UKMET shows a slower trough with greater strength trailing to the
southwest. This leads to a different precipitation pattern than
the consensus of the other models. Therefore, the UKMET is
excluded by Day 3.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers