Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1231 AM EDT Tue Jul 09 2019

Valid Jul 09/0000 UTC thru Jul 12/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation Including Preference and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Average

For the majority of the CONUS, model agreement shows a high degree
of similarity on the synoptic pattern with any spread seen
relatively limited through the forecast period. Therefore, a
general model blend is preferred in most cases.

The two areas of concern where some differences were noted lie
across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region with the approach
of a stronger shortwave trough by mid-week. The GFS remains a bit
faster compared to the rest of the guidance but not significantly
enough to exclude it at this time. The NAM meanwhile it is a touch
more amplified, especially by Day 3 as it approaches the eastern
Great Lakes region.

The other region of interest is the southeast U.S. and Gulf Coast
with respect to any potential tropical development as a low moving
offshore. Overall, model spread is not too high but there remains
higher than normal uncertainty in the eventual track and potential
development. The NAM (and to some degree the GFS) are further
north with the low track, keeping it right along coast through Day
3. While the non-NCEP models (12Z runs) are further south
offshore. With the rest of the 00Z guidance coming in later
tonight, it will be interesting to see which way the models trend.
For now, a general model blend will likely be sufficient given the
spread and uncertainty.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor