Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1248 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Valid Jul 11/0000 UTC thru Jul 14/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation Including Preference and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend (across the CONUS)
            See latest NHC advisories for P.T.C. TWO (Gulf Coast)
Confidence: Slightly above average

Over the next 3 days, there continues to be reasonably good
agreement with the synoptic pattern across the CONUS. Shortwave
energy will track across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast
U.S. while a ridge builds and retrogrades to the Four Corners
region. Tropical development is still anticipated across the
northern Gulf of Mexico, and the NHC has initiated advisories on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (P.T.C. TWO). The track of this
system will be dictated by the strength/position of the
strengthening ridge to the north and west of the cyclone.
Elsewhere, there will be a new shortwave trough impacting areas of
the Pacific Northwest, but the bulk of the height falls are
expected to remain offshore.

For the northern tier of the U.S., a general model blend can be
applied where the guidance is well clustered with timing and depth
of the shortwave trough evolution.  That includes the system
moving into the Pacific Northwest.

The biggest model differences continue to revolve around P.T.C.TWO
over the northern Gulf of Mexico.  The NAM remained on the
faster/western side of the guidance...a position it has maintained
for multiple model runs.  It still suggests P. T. C. Two will
impact the middle Texas coast.  The UKMET also continued its idea
of being on the faster/stronger side of the guidance but not as
fast as the NAM.  The UKMET definitely had a much stronger
subtropical ridge building north of the system through the period
which is aided its farther west track.

On the flip side, the 00Z GFS becomes is the slowest solution and
supports a recurvature up across southeast LA by early Saturday.
This leaves the 10/12Z ECMWF and 10/12Z CMC clustered in between
the faster and slower camps. A blend of the ECMWF/CMC camp was
closest to the 11/03Z NHC forecast track at this time, and
supports a direct impact across southwest to south-central LA by
midday Saturday. Please consult the latest NHC forecast
advisories/discussions for more details on P.T.C. TWO.

Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Bann