Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1253 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Valid Jul 12/0000 UTC thru Jul 15/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation Including Preference and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
...Tropical Storm Barry...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: Blend of 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF (CONUS)
            12Z ECMWF (T.S. Barry) - See latest NHC Forecast
Confidence: Slightly above average

The dominant weather feature impacting the CONUS through the
short-range period will be Tropical Storm Barry which is currently
over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The 03Z NHC forecast track of
Barry is closest to the 00Z ECMWF. The 12Z UKMET remains a
westward tracking outlier, and the 00Z NAM also still gradually
takes Barry left of the NHC track, although not nearly as far west
as the UKMET. The 00Z GFS does tend to follow the NHC track,
albeit it slower. Meanwhile, the 12Z CMC is slower and a bit left
of the NHC track.

Regarding the 00Z hires model guidance and their handling of
Barry, the 00Z NAM-conest is the closest to the NHC track, with
the 00Z ARW2/NMMB solutions notably left of the NHC track through
48 hours. The 00Z ARW is a slow outlier solution, but does tend to
otherwise follow the NHC track. Please consult the latest NHC
forecast advisory for more details on Barry.

Elsewhere across the country, there will be shortwave energy
traversing the Northwest and the northern tier of the nation
around the northern flank of a fairly strong subtropical ridge
over the Four Corners region and stretching east across portions
of the central Plains and Midwest. The 12Z CMC is a weaker outlier
solution with this energy. The 00Z NAM is perhaps just a tad too
deep and too slow with the evolution of this energy, and to some
extent the 12Z ECMWF exhibits this behavior as well. Meanwhile, a
pair of deeper troughs will be impacting the Northeast through the
period. The model spread with these features is modest, with the
00Z NAM perhaps just a tad too deep.

The preference for the CONUS outside of Tropical Storm Barry will
be for a 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF blend. Regarding Tropical Storm Barry,
the ECMWF is the closest solution to the NHC track.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison