Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1218 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Valid Jul 13/1200 UTC thru Jul 17/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation Including Preference and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
...Hurricane Barry...
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Preference: 12Z GFS, 06Z GEFS, 00Z ECMWF blend (CONUS)
            00Z ECMWF, 12Z ARW2...through 36 hours (Hurricane
Barry)
            12Z GFS, 00Z ECMWF...after 36 hours (Hurricane Barry)
Confidence: Average (CONUS)
            Slightly below Average (T.S. Barry)

The main weather feature impacting the CONUS through the
short-range period will again be Hurricane Barry, which is
currently just offshore the central Louisiana coast. The 15Z NHC
forecast track of Barry is closest to a blend of the 12Z GFS and
00Z ECMWF through the next 24 to 36 hours. The 12Z NAM and 00Z
UKMET are a tad west of the official forecast track but its error
has been reduced in the last forecast model cycle as the storm has
trended a bit westward as well. The 00Z CMC is a good proxy
initially but then falls out of favor after 24 hours and becomes
an outlier and should be discarded. Regarding any hi-res guidance,
the 12Z ARW2 provided a good proxy as well to the latest NHC track
and was considered for its QPF. By Day 2/3, a blend of the 12Z
GFS, 06Z GEFS, and 00Z ECMWF was a good compromise for the
official NHC track. Please consult the latest NHC forecast
advisory for more details on Barry.

Elsewhere across the country, quasi-zonal flow will remain focused
along the northern tier of the U.S. while ridging persists across
the southwest U.S. Remnants of Barry will gradually become
absorbed into the northern stream jet energy by mid-week as it
turns northeastward over the lower Ohio Valley. This is while a
shortwave trough begins to push into the Pacific Northwest and
crosses into the northern Plains. Here, the model mass fields are
in generally good agreement with the best consensus being a blend
of the 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor