Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1253 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Valid Jul 14/0000 UTC thru Jul 17/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation Including Preference and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
...Hurricane Barry...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: Blend of the 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF (CONUS)
            See latest NHC advisory (T.S. Barry)
Confidence: Slightly above average (CONUS)

The main weather feature impacting the CONUS through the
short-range period will again be Hurricane Barry, which is
currently moving north-northwest across west-central LA. The 03Z
NHC forecast track of Barry is closest to a blend of the 00Z GFS
and 12Z ECMWF through the next 48 hours. The 12Z UKMET ends up
being a bit to the left of the NHC track through 24 hours, before
then coming back into better agreement with the GFS/ECMWF/NHC
tracks. The UKMET though tends to hang on to a stronger low center
in time as Barry lifts north toward the mid-MS Valley. The 00Z NAM
tends to be close to the NHC track, although in time it may edge a
little right of the NHC track. The NAM though becomes a bit of a
weaker outlier compared to the global models. Regarding any hi-res
guidance, the 00Z NMMB is overwhelmingly the farthest west
solution and in time becomes slower than the hires model
consensus. Meanwhile, the 00Z ARW/ARW2 and 00Z NAM-conest are east
of the NMMB, but are collectively to the left of the NHC track.
Overall, the ARW is the slowest solution. Based on the latest
radar and surface observations, it appears that Barry may already
be tracking a bit farther to the left of the NHC track, which in
this case will give the hires model guidance some support
including the ARW/NMMB solution and also the UKMET. Please consult
the latest NHC forecast advisory for more details on Barry.

Elsewhere across the country, quasi-zonal flow will remain focused
along the northern tier of the U.S. while ridging persists across
the southwest U.S. The Remnants of Barry in time will gradually
become absorbed into the northern stream jet energy by mid-week as
it turns northeastward over the lower Ohio Valley. This is while a
shortwave trough begins to push into the Pacific Northwest and
crosses into the northern Plains. Here, the model mass fields are
in generally good agreement with the best consensus being a blend
of the 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF.


Model trends at www.wpc.noaa.gov/html/model2.html
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison